The full moon of the month has come and gone and that peculiar disease known as March Madness is almost upon us.
Selection Sunday and the annual Spring Ball are just around the corner, after the college basketball conferences of America settle some unfinished business.
Most leagues with postseason tournaments start the competition on Thursday.
Las Vegas odds maker Ken White says it’s “easy” to forecast the top four NCAA Tournament seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Kansas and Ohio State.
“And when I say that, I’m ranking them in order,” he said.
Ohio State (27-3) currently sits atop the Associated Press national hoops poll, but White stays with Florida (26-5) to win it all again.
The Gators have lost three games in the past three weeks against SEC opponents Vanderbilt, LSU and Tennessee.
“Teams need something to play for,” White theorized.
“Florida already had their division locked up and had already lost one conference game (to the Commodores), so they couldn’t play an undefeated (league) season.
“There was no motivation.”
The Buckeyes, he says, are putting together a team of freshmen, while the defending champion and the sixth-ranked Gators are loaded with experience.
“If they were playing tomorrow, Florida would be a 3 1/2 to 4 point favorite,” White stated.
The managing partner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies lines to the vast majority of Nevada sportsbooks as well as clients elsewhere, believes the ACC is the premier US conference, while the SEC is the most underrated.
“The thing is, the SEC has some good teams (in the East Division), but the West is weak,” White said.
“The Big 12 are very good this year and the Big 10 are the weakest.”
White thinks bettors can still find some future values, though he says the best time to buy was closer to the holidays.
“The best time to buy futures is in December or early January,” he said.
“I’ve been pushing Georgetown for months, for example, but the number has really tanked.”
The Hoyas, 40/1 in January, are now 8/1.
Texas A&M, another club White has been very good at, is also 8/1, down from 25/1.
Two teams that the tipster turned gambler considers legitimate sleepers are Pitt and Louisville.
“Pittsburgh has the talent to win it all and right now Louisville is playing as well as anyone,” White said.
“I really like his coach (Rick Pitino).”
The 13th-ranked Panthers (25-6) are holding steady at 18/1, while No. 12 Louisville (22-8), winner of six straight since losing to Georgetown a month ago, has fallen from 100/1 to 25/. 1.
White also cautions players not to overlook No. 21 Duke (22-9).
The Blue Devils, perennial contenders under coach Mike Krzyzewski, are having a bad year by school standards, but White says they shouldn’t be ignored.
The Mirage has Duke at 15/1, half the 30/1 it was a month ago.
“And watch out for Maryland (24-7),” White said.
The Terrapins, national champions in 2002, are ranked 17th.
Nevadans need look no further than their own backyard to find teams capable of making some noise in the tournament, the bookmaker adds.
Both state schools are in the top 25 in the country, with Nevada (27-3) ranked 10th and UNLV (25-6) ranked 25th.
Wolfpack has dropped from 50/1 to 30/1, while the Rebels remain at 100/1.
“It looks like UNLV will get a decent seed now,” White said.
“For a while it looked like they would have to play a top seed or No. 2 in their first game.”
As for the Wolfpack, White couldn’t find enough positive things to say about star Nick Fazekas.
“He can do everything,” White said.
“Whoever puts him in the NBA draft will get a real steal.
“I thought for a while that he could break into the Top 5, but he’s been pushed down.
“However, he’s still going to go in the first round, somewhere between 15 and 25, and I see him having a 10-year career averaging 16 to 18 points per game.
“He’s a great team player.”
Those looking for something more secure can always head to nearby UCLA.
The Bruins, who lost to the Gators, are 26-4 and rank fourth.
They have gone from 8/1 in future books to a current 9/2.
“I have UCLA as a second-tier team right now,” White said.
“They should get a No. 2 seed, maybe No. 3.”
White also points out that the days of laughing at Winthrop are over.
He says the Eagles, who have made seven tournament appearances in the past nine years, could be this year’s version of George Mason’s 2006 “Cinderella team.”
“They’re the long shot,” White said.
Winthrop was 24th in the standings this week, but was still 750/1 in the Mirage.