The success of sports betting often comes down to knowing the personalities of the teams that play. One aspect of a team’s personality is how well they play on artificial grass compared to natural grass. Here is an analysis I did of a game between Ball St. and Toledo that exemplifies how to use this information to make money:
This game pits two teams that have scored a lot of points and given up a lot of points this season. Ball St. is averaging 27 points on offense while averaging 28 points on defense. Toledo is giving up even more points on defense, 29 per game, while “only” averaging 23 points per game.
Ball St. has managed to cover 6 of 9 games this year, even though they have a lousy 3-7 SU record. But their ATS record doesn’t include a game where they lost SU to N. Dakota St. For accuracy, let’s count this game against Ball St., which makes their “real” ATS record 6-4.
But here’s an interesting fact related to tonight’s game. Ball St., which plays its home games on grass, has a surprisingly good record playing on artificial turf. In his last 10 games, Ball St. is 8-2 ATS on artificial turf, including SU losses against Miami (OH), E. Michigan, N. Illinois (a game in which Ball St. was a 28-dog points) and W. Michigan (a game where Ball St. was an 11 1/2-point dog).
HBall St. has broken the line by a whopping 17 points per game! And all of these surprises happened when Ball St. was playing on artificial turf.
On the other hand, Ball St. has played 10 away games on natural grass since 2002, and has lost 9 of 10 SUs, and is only 4-6 ATS on grass playing away from home. Do you see a pattern here? Do you think maybe the Ball St. team is more prepared to play on artificial turf than on grass?
Even against Michigan’s No. 2, Ball St. quarterback Nate Davis and speedy wide receiver Darius Love had big games, with Davis throwing for 250 yards and Love averaging more than 100 receiving yards, including an average of over 17 receiving yards. There’s no reason Davis and Love shouldn’t have a similar game against Toledo, a team that has allowed an average of more than 400 total yards per game. The fact that this match is being played on artificial turf
The bottom line of this game is that Ball St. has a legitimate chance to win outright. The fact that they get 5 points can be an advantage.
The downside is that Ball St. has been beaten by Toledo in each of the last two seasons, losing in 2005 by a score of 34-14 and losing in 2004 by a score of 52-14. I know this is 2006, not 2004 or 2005, but when you look at recent history that has been so one-sided, you can see why everyone expects Toledo to win this game. The end result is that these factors tend to balance out, with only a slight advantage for Ball St.
I’d lean toward Ball St. to cover with Ball St. beating Toledo 34-31. But again, keep in mind that there is nothing to make me think this is a very high probability play.
Ball St. actually upset Toledo in this game, winning 20-17. Just by understanding Ball St.’s history in artificial turf, people interested in sports betting could have made a lot of money betting on this game.