Well, we went 3-2 ATS with our BEST OBTS last week, 11-4 ATS the last three weeks, and 30-21 ATS for the season. We’ve got some good ideas for what our picks will be this week, including the all-important Thanksgiving games everyone always wants to get right. Let’s take a look at our first thoughts on this week’s games.
THANKSGIVING GAMES
DALLAS 14 NY Jets: This is a huge line considering the Jets just pulled off a big win over the Steelers due to the good boost quarterback Kellen Clemens has given the club. The Cowboys always play well on Thanksgiving, though, and their ability to play in a short week every year has to count for something.
Green Bay 3.5 DETROIT: The Lions are coming off a tough home loss to the Giants and almost always play tough against the Pack at home. They are also a home underdog in a game they are used to playing. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last four against the Lions and they look pretty unstoppable right now. ****THIS GAME HAS THE LOOK OF A POTENTIAL BETTER BET.
Indianapolis 11.5 ATLANTA FALCONS: The Colts continue to give big differentials even though they are ravaged by injuries. The fact that they barely beat the Chiefs at home is worrisome. The Falcons, however, are dogs and are starting to look like they might be up for the year.
SUNDAY
ARIZONA 10.5 San Francisco: I can’t remember the last time the Cardinals gave someone that many points, but the 49ers are a joke. However, the cards don’t handle being heavy favorites, as they are a bad 4-15 ATS when they deal more than 7.
CHICAGO vs. Denver: This game is off the board because of last night’s game involving Denver, but imagine the Bears giving up a point plus or minus. Both are coming off wins, so this one could go either way.
CINCINNATI vs. Tennessee – This game is canceled due to Tennessee playing in last night’s game. Figure the Titans give 3 or more, making the Bengals a living underdog. However, the Titans play D Cincy’s kind of tough returns.
CLEVELAND 3.5 Houston: The Browns have been tough at home, but the extra half is scary after the show the Texans put on last week. Houston has WR Andre Johnson back and it changes the entire dynamic of the offense.
JACKSONVILLE 7.5 Buffalo: Jags playing hard D and running the ball well, which is a great recipe for success. However, they go through scoring droughts and this is a bit of a high number for them. However, the Bills have been terrible on the road and could be down after being ripped apart by the Pats.
KANSAS CITY 5.5 Oakland: Pick the Chiefs, that’s all I have to say. Oakland is a joke.
NEW ENGLAND vs. Philadelphia: This game is canceled due to the uncertain status of Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb. If he plays, Pats will be favored by 12 or so. If Feely plays, he goes to 16.5.
New Orleans 3 CAROLINA: Both teams are in the midst of losing streaks. Carolina is a big underdog 22-7 ATS, but they have no offensive production right now and things don’t seem to be getting better. Saints can score which should give them the advantage here, but they are certainly questioning themselves after two terrible losses so they could be ready for another loss.
NY GIANTS 7 Minnesota: RB Chestor Taylor is keeping the Vikings afloat now, but things will be tougher this week against a beefy Giant D-Line. This is the type of game the Giants usually play, so keep an eye out for the overlook.
SAN DIEGO 9.5 Baltimore: The Chargers continue to give points based on last year’s team. This line is too high based on their shoddy performance this year so far. However, Baltimore is terrible offensively and they might be ready to throw coach Brian Billick under the bus.
Seattle 3 ST. LOUIS: Interesting game as both come with winning streaks. The Rams will certainly remember the beating they took at the hands of Seattle weeks ago and could use that as motivation. Seattle is looking for a high seed in the playoffs, so don’t look for a drop in intensity.
TAMPA BAY 3 WASHINGTON: Buc’s will be tough at home here, but Washington should be prepared for a big game after losing a tough one to Dallas.
PITTSBURGH 16 Miami: Wow, this is a great line, but the Steelers should dominate here.