Have you ever wondered how the “smart money” of sports betting became smart money? Wondering what the smart money of sports betting does differently from the amateurs?
Here is an example of a game I analyzed and how I decided which team had the advantage. Once you can identify an edge, it’s easy to make money from sports betting:
UAB vs. EMS-5
First, let’s start by noting that none of these teams is a powerhouse, not even one of the top 25. UAB is 3-5 SU this season and is averaging just 19 points per game against teams like Marshall, Troy and Rice to name a few. Miraculously, UAB opened their season against Oklahoma and only lost 24-17 in a game in which they were down 24 points. Since that game, UAB is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games, and that’s when they blew out Troy (who ever heard of a college named Troy?) 21-3.
On the other hand, SMU is playing at home tonight, and they’ve done pretty well ATS this season, going 4-3 ATS. SMU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games, and is also 6-3 ATS in its last nine home games.
As with any college game, it’s always smart to see how well the teams do at home. The home field, depending on who is playing, can be a very important tactical advantage. My impression going into this game was that SMU had a decided home field advantage that would make them a decent pick against a poor UAB team.
So how does my initial impression compare to the actual reality? Does SMU have a real home field advantage?
How about this stat? In addition to going 6-3 ATS in their last 9 home games, SMU has scored 31, 55, 45 and 40 points in their last 4 home games. In their last 4 betting line home games, SMU have outscored their opponents by an average of 31-13 per game, while the point spread in these games has averaged that only SMU is favored by -3 points.
In other words, in SMU’s last 4 home games, they not only won ATS, they beat SPREAD by an average of about 15 points per game.
The last piece of the puzzle is the record of the UAB playing outside. They are only 3-7 SU in their last 10 road games and 5-5 ATS. In fact, Georgia eliminated them a few weeks ago and they lost SU to Rice 34-33 in a game where they were favorites.
The bottom line is that everything points to SMU being able and, more importantly, willing to turn the scoreboard up at home against UAB. I’m looking for SMU to win this 41-28.
While I’m not “officially” recommending betting over/under on this game, I will tell you that I’d go over 49 1/2 if I was forced to take sides. Sometimes, in a game like this, it’s not a bad idea to split the amount you were going to bet on the game into two smaller bets, one on the game and one on the over/under. In this way, you are risking the same amount, but your risk is spread over two relatively independent outcomes, the game itself and the plus/minus.
As you can see from the analysis above, it is important to dig into the statistics to identify any patterns. In this case, the statistics showed that SMU was a very strong team at home and that UAB was very weak away from home. As it turned out, SMU won 22-9, keeping UAB out of the end zone all night.