A good handicap requires a look at many factors and in-depth study to find the true odds of each runner winning the race. There are some shortcuts, however, you can learn to quickly correct and find a horse that may have an advantage in a key factor of the race. While all factors in horse racing may need to be considered, there are some that are more important than others.
Let’s start with rhythm as an example. Take a look at the running model and find out if any running style has a huge advantage over the others. Race summaries often don’t just show pace pairs and racing styles, they estimate each horse’s racing style and likely pace figures. Look for the horses that match that race pattern.
An example would be many maiden races at various tracks. In a race with no first-time entrants, it is often apparent how the rhythm will form. It is also true that at most race tracks, the first sprinters have an advantage in the opening races. Find the horse with the best pace for the starting speed. While many other things may matter, this horse has the edge in an important category.
Now let’s look at another category of races that tend to favor a particular style of running. Turf breeds as a rule favor horses that come off the beat. While it is true that there are some who favor early speed or even early runners, most of these turf races offer an advantage to the late running horse.
So look for high paced horses for late speed. These horses have a clear advantage in these events. You should always check the track model to make sure this is the case. When you find a race that favors late speed, look for the horse with the latest speed and who has an advantage.
Now you need to apply filters to each of these advantage-type horses to ensure that there are no over-driving conditions that make them a bad bet. Start with recent form. If the horse has finished in the money or within 5 lengths of today’s distance and surface in the last thirty days, it has passed the first test. The next test is the connections. The jockey and the trainer must know how to win. The higher the averages for these two key people, the better the horse will look. A lousy win rate would be a red flag and I would pass it on.
Again, this is just a simple way to find a possible bet and you should always remember that betting on horse racing is risky and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.