India captain Dhoni is not known for winning pitches. That said, he had mixed fortunes in the league stage of the 2011 ICC World Cup, winning and missing three shots apiece.
We often say before a game that the draw is crucial; what we really mean is that the team that bats first will have an inherent advantage. In other words, we expect the captain who wins the toss to choose to bat. Presumably, this assumption should make it easier for my readers to understand the title of this article. Especially when you consider that Ponting belongs to the winning bat-leader school of captains.
I definitely advocate India bowl first in Ahmedabad. And I’m not sure Dhoni would choose to bowl if he won the toss in the quarter-final against Australia. The ghost of 2003, when Ganguly opted to participate in the World Cup final, continues to haunt the Indian team.
The circumstances are now completely different. Australian batting isn’t as strong as it was in 2003, or even 2007, when Gilchrist and Hayden were at the top of their order. While Watson is capable of starting a large number of innings, he doesn’t have Hayden’s inning-building ability, and he doesn’t convert his starts as often as he would like his team to. Also, since India is likely to open with a spinner, he is likely to see a more attempted start in the Aussie innings than if two closers were operating together.
Ponting was the hero of India’s defeat in 2003, and his woeful lack of form should give Dhoni the hint he needs on what to do if he wins the toss. Another factor that could help Dhoni decide is the failure of the Australian lower-middle order, with Cameron White in disappointing form, and Smith hasn’t made much more than a cameo or two in his ODI career. However, the situation could change if Australia select David Hussey instead of either of them.
As Pat Symcox pointed out after South Africa successfully pursued their goal against India, most wickets in this world cup have gone the distance, unlike in the past when it came to ‘winning the toss and winning the match’, especially in day and night games, where chasing under the lights was an ordeal best avoided.
So India’s best option is to put the Aussies in and knock them out for a manageable total, something that is eminently possible, as the Pakistanis showed us the other day.