I’m going to make some predictions based on what I’ve seen happen this week in the e-book market. As with any type of forecast, I have a 50% chance of being wrong. But guessing about the future, particularly in the fast-paced realm of technology, is my kind of fun.
First of all, how do you spell? ebook? Or is that ebook? Newspapers like the NY Times use the script, and those who break fashion rules don’t. I’m betting on those who break the fashion rules because, hey, they’re the ones who make the rules for tomorrow (which is next week).
The event that most warmed me up about the pre-Christmas hype for e-readers (script here for readability?) Was an ad I saw on TV two nights ago for the Sony Reader. Now this device has been on the market for a couple of years. It was one of the first of its kind, predating the Amazon Kindle. But apparently Sony’s strategy was to promote it first primarily to academics and librarians, running print ads in some of the most snobbish magazines. I complained on my blog, even back then, that Sony was preaching to the chorus and wasting its wait time by not addressing consumers directly. I wanted to see a billboard campaign with a dazzling techno counterpart of silhouettes of dancers jumping in white headphones.
And it puzzled me that Apple seemed to be deliberately ignoring that market. In fact, I was horrified when Steve Jobs reportedly commented that kids don’t read anymore, so there is no point in launching a reader. I was hoping it was clever disinformation, as much as I disliked the use of disinformation in any form and for any reason. (You can read e-books on an iPhone using various third-party apps. However, I don’t think that’s a core strategy for Apple.)
So I did some research on Sony’s ad data and found that people reported seeing it last month (August 2009) in some regional markets. I live in the Los Angeles area and have never seen it. But this limited exposure last month seems like a marketing test to me. I’d bet that now, after Labor Day and before the holidays, you’ll see that ad a lot, on all major networks, broadcast and cable, and across the country.
Personally, I think the ad sucks, showing a panel of experts (some / all of the actors), who are promoting the topic. You claim to be the world champion speed reader, and I bet you actually are. But the spinning silhouettes of pop icons, they are not. Once again, Sony is pitching in the geeks. (I consider myself a geek, so don’t think I’m putting my peers down. It’s just that we’re not the majority of the population or that everyone in the US would have had Medicare years ago.)
Add to this porterus development related evidence that Philips iRex is now launching into a venture with Best Buy and Verizon, as reported in the NY Times yesterday. The iRex reads the open source EPUB format. Sony recently announced that the Reader will soon support that format as well, along with its proprietary LRF format and Adobe PDF. One big difference is that EPUB books generally lack the digital rights management (DRM) electronic copy restrictions imposed by LRF, Amazon Kindle, and some versions of Adobe PDF.
For my part, I decided to join the club and strengthened my membership and presence in the e-book distribution service Smashwords.com, which supports EPUB and LRF, as well as many other formats. I think a big consideration for e-book buyers should be the long-term cost of purchasing content. E-book prices vary widely, but many versions of the Amazon Kindle advertise for just under $ 10. Many versions of Smashwords EPUB range from free to a dollar or two, although top sellers usually cost more. In addition, there is the public domain library that Project Gutenberg offers, where everything is free and is about a hundred years old. But if you look for Charles Dickens instead of Dan Brown, you can find him and thousands of other famous authors in EPUB, HTML, and “plain text” formats.
It seems that the Sony Reader Pocket Edition has the lowest price among its competitors, but it lacks wireless connectivity. Maybe that’s not a big deal and price is the crucial factor. Other Sony Reader models, as well as the Kindle and iRex, have a built-in wireless connection (with service included), which I suppose is the main reason for the price difference.
This will all change, probably by the time you click the Submit button to publish this article.
And Apple? Can we expect an announcement one day? I’m betting on a tablet-sized plug-in display as an accessory for existing iPods. Years ago, I saw a “leaked” YouTube slideshow on such a device, as if it had been prepared for a briefing by the Apple development team. Whether the video clip is fake or not, the concept makes perfect sense, both technically and commercially. The iPhone is a useful reader, but I wouldn’t read a novel about it.
And I also thought Amazon’s strategy to introduce the larger-format Kindle 3 into the college textbook model was a brilliant move – into a niche market you’d think Sony would have owned by then.
I don’t know if it means anything, but I can’t find that leaked Apple video on YouTube anymore …